[News] A rapid ceasefire in Ukraine could lead Donald Trump into a Russian trap

[Rimuru]

The article from Chatham House argues that a hasty ceasefire in Ukraine could be a dangerous trap set by Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially leading to a worse outcome for Ukraine and the West. The author, Orysia Lutsevych, warns that without credible security guarantees from the West, a ceasefire would simply provide a pause before a wider war. She points to the history of broken ceasefires and agreements between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the Minsk agreements as a prime example of how Russia has used such agreements to subvert Ukraine's interests. Lutsevych further argues that a ceasefire without strong Western support would leave Ukraine vulnerable to Russian manipulation. Putin could use the opportunity to reconstitute his military, claim victory, and then exploit the ensuing elections to install a puppet regime in Kyiv. This scenario is reminiscent of Russia's actions in Georgia in 2008, where it invaded, occupied a portion of the country, and then manipulated the subsequent elections to its advantage. The article concludes by emphasizing the need for a coordinated effort between Ukraine, the United States, and Europe to ensure a ceasefire that is both effective and sustainable. This includes securing robust security guarantees for Ukraine, preventing Russia from claiming any Ukrainian territory, and rejecting any changes to borders by force. The author warns that a poorly negotiated ceasefire could embolden Putin and lead to further aggression, ultimately harming Ukraine and the West.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/01/rapid-ceasefire-ukraine-could-lead-donald-trump-russian-trap