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[Economics] Bbva Research projects that the national economy will grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024

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This morning, during a press conference, Bbva Research announced its economic projections for Colombia during 2023 and 2024, the balance of its growth during the last year, as well as the factors that drove this behavior and that very possibly will do so during the next following months.

There, the analysts highlighted that the Colombian economy will be able to cope with the slowdown in GDP to 0.7% in 2023, this after the good results it showed last year. That of 2023, according to experts, would be a necessary slowdown.

Thus, the projections of Bbva Research for Colombia show that the national economy will have growth of 0.7% this year and 1.8% in 2024.

“During this year the economy will grow 0.7%, a result that will be led by public consumption, which will grow 5.9% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2024, in addition to the greater execution of civil works in 2023, the recovery of non-residential buildings in 2024 and the permanence of export growth in the next two years. On the contrary, private consumption could have a slight drop during 2023, to then slowly recover throughout 2024,” said Mauricio Hernández, economist at Bbva Research for Colombia.

And it is that, according to what was exposed by the analysts, the growth of 2022 was historically high. The boost came from domestic demand, pushing up imports, but also from variables such as the creation of formal employment, real consumption per capita, real increase in the balance of consumer credit, among others.

Regarding the employment issue, Hernández highlighted that "while we have these growth projections, what we expect is that this year there will be no destruction of employment but no creation either, that is, that we will stay at the same level of employment as last year, which, seen with this economic moderation that we are having, seems to be good news. Of course, it seems that there will be more people looking for work, not only the new ones who are finishing their studies, but also probably, in terms of the economic slowdown, a second member of the household will go out to look for work to supplement the household income”.

According to the bank's analysts, from the end of 2022 some signs of a slowdown in economic activity began to be noticed, more evident in household spending on durable goods and the housing market. But they stressed that the economy will be able to cope with the economic slowdown thanks to some strengths that it will maintain in the coming years.



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