[Politics] Stratfor: 4 possible scenarios for conflict in Sudan

[SnO]

An American Center for Strategic and Security Studies predicted the continuation of battles in large cities in Sudan, with the clashes between the army and the Rapid Support Forces entering its second week, and developed 4 scenarios for the development of the war in the country.

The Center, known as Stratfor, said in its assessment of the current events that intense fighting was likely to continue in the main cities, although its pause in the coming days may allow the evacuation of foreign nationals.

 

 

 

In his report, he indicated that the situation in Khartoum, Omdurman and other cities across the country is still volatile and developing rapidly, adding that this has prompted foreign governments and humanitarian organizations to prepare for many possible scenarios in the coming days and weeks.

Most likely the war will continue
It seems that the most likely scenario is the continuation of intense urban warfare, although the increasing pressure from the United States, Saudi Arabia and others may lead to a short halt to the evacuation, according to the American Center, which pointed out that the fighting may develop in the coming days and weeks with at least 4 different scenarios.

The first, most likely scenario is that the armed forces and/or the RSF agree to a periodic ceasefire, but that sporadic fighting will continue in urban centres.

The Center believes that a permanent or indefinite ceasefire is unlikely to be reached, but international pressure to allow evacuations may prompt one or both of the warring parties to stop the fighting for a short period.

What hinders truces?
The report claims that opposition and divisions within the Sudanese army are major constraints even on temporary truces to provide people in combat zones with humanitarian supplies and medical care, as "hard-liners" in the armed forces are calling for a complete victory over the "rapid support" forces.

The second possible scenario is the continuation of violent fighting in cities without a cease-fire, "in light of the relatively equal capabilities of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in terms of the number of personnel and equipment."

There is a danger that countries in the region may begin to provide their "favored side" in the conflict with money, weapons and other forms of military support.

And "Stratfor" added in its assessment that the RSF is already reportedly receiving support from Russian mercenaries (Wagner), which is likely to prolong the fighting in Khartoum.

The conflict moved to the countryside
The third scenario, which the report describes as somewhat likely, is that one of the two sides will defeat the other, forcing the latter to seek refuge in rural areas in remote parts of the country.

The fourth scenario, which is an unlikely possibility, according to the assessment, is that the army and the Rapid Support Forces agree to a permanent ceasefire, "but the risk of violence erupting in the future remains."

The American Center believes that there is a chance - albeit a very small one - that international pressure (especially Arab) will give way to an unlimited ceasefire between the warring parties in the coming days or weeks.

 

 

https://www.aljazeera.net/politics/2023/4/22/ستراتفور-4-سيناريوهات-محتملة-للصراع-في